When the Wolves of Wall Street Smelled Blood: Tungsten Rose Tenfold
Only a year ago, tungsten remained one of the least noticed strategic metals in the global economy. Today, it has become one of the clearest indicators of the emerging raw materials confrontation between China and the West.
By early May 2026, global tungsten prices had increased almost tenfold compared with the same period a year earlier. The main drivers were Chinese export restrictions, declining availability of material on international markets, and a sharp increase in demand from the defence industry.
The dynamics of the U.S. market are particularly revealing. Since the beginning of 2026, the price of strategic-grade tungsten delivered to Baltimore has risen by approximately 234%, or more than 3.3 times.
The main surge occurred during the first quarter. Following China's introduction of strict export restrictions on tungsten semi-finished products and the reduction of available inventories outside China, prices increased by approximately 188% during the first three months of the year. By May, gains since the beginning of the year had at times reached as much as 350%. Chinese export licences were significantly restricted, while the number of companies authorised to export tungsten abroad was reduced to just fifteen.
The second quarter brought an effective split of the global market into two separate systems: the Chinese market and the external market. Within China, prices corrected by almost 50% from their peak levels as the speculative phase came to an end. In contrast, prices in the United States and Europe barely reacted to the Chinese correction, declining by only 3–4% from all-time highs. The reason was the collapse of traditional arbitrage mechanisms and a physical shortage of material outside China.
In effect, the market entered a new reality in which the price of a strategic metal is determined not by the cost of production but by access to physical supply.
The roots of this development lie in the structure of global production. In 2025, global tungsten mine production amounted to approximately 85,000 tonnes of contained metal. Of this total, around 67,000 tonnes originated from China, which controls roughly 80% of global mine supply and an even larger share of processing capacity. Vietnam follows at a considerable distance, alongside Kazakhstan, Russia and North Korea.
The United States has not produced domestic tungsten since 2015 and is therefore heavily dependent on imports. For many years this dependence was not considered strategically significant. That assessment changed with rising military expenditure and increasing weapons production.
Following operations against Iran, the U.S. military faced the need to replenish stocks of precision-guided weapons, including Tomahawk cruise missiles, Patriot interceptor systems and Precision Strike Missiles. The production of most modern munitions requires tungsten due to its exceptional hardness, density and the highest melting point of any metal.
Defence applications, however, represent only part of global demand. Tungsten is widely used in aerospace, semiconductors, energy equipment, drilling technology, industrial tooling and high-temperature alloys. Even parts of the U.S. oil and gas sector have reportedly begun replacing tungsten-containing components with cheaper steel alternatives as a result of rising prices.
The Western response was predictable: the search for alternative sources of supply began immediately.
In March 2026, Almonty Industries completed the first phase of the restart of the Sangdong Mine in South Korea, which had been closed for more than thirty years due to competition from low-cost Chinese material. Once fully operational, the project is expected to supply up to 40% of Western tungsten demand.
South Korea, however, is only part of the story. Investors are increasingly focusing on companies that could become the foundation of a new non-Chinese tungsten supply chain. These include the UK's Tungsten West, which is redeveloping the Hemerdon project in Britain, Australia's EQ Resources with producing assets in Australia and Spain, U.S.-focused Guardian Metal Resources developing projects in Nevada, and Strategic Minerals, owner of the Redmoor project in Cornwall containing significant tungsten and tin resources.
At the same time, the United States is considering the development of domestic projects in Montana, while American capital is participating in the development of new tungsten deposits in Kazakhstan. Mining projects, however, are measured in years, whereas military conflicts, defence procurement programmes and industrial supply chains require metal today.
Andrievskii Verdict
For the past two decades, investors have become accustomed to viewing oil as the world's principal strategic resource, while rare earths were often regarded as a specialist niche.
The events of 2026 have demonstrated that the list of critical materials is significantly broader.
The world is entering an era of resource nationalism, where control over mineral deposits may prove no less important than control over technology or manufacturing capacity.
Tungsten appears to be one of the first metals of this new era.
Judging by recent developments, it is unlikely to be the last.
Aleksei Andrievskii | Advisory Board Member, Bendura Bank AG | Liechtenstein