ANDRIEVSKII.CH | US and the Houthis: Washington Changes the Rules of the Game
A secret channel in Muscat could reshape the balance of power in the Red Sea
The Reuters report published on September 16, 2026, about a secret meeting between US representatives and Houthi leaders in Oman is, in my view, one of the most significant geopolitical developments of recent days.
According to five Reuters sources, US representatives met with Houthi representatives over the weekend at the US Embassy in Muscat. One source said the meeting took place on Sunday. Oman helped facilitate the contact, according to Reuters. The Houthi delegation included Mohammed Abdulsalam and Abdulmalik al-Ajri. The US State Department did not confirm the meeting, saying only that it remains committed to the security of shipping in the Red Sea.
The contact comes as the situation in Yemen is changing rapidly. The Houthis have advanced along the Red Sea coast and taken strategic positions, including Perim Island near the entrance to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This has strengthened their influence over one of the world's most important shipping routes.
Washington Opts for Limited De-escalation
On September 12, Reuters reported that after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman appealed to Donald Trump, Washington declined direct US military intervention against the Houthis. According to three Reuters sources, the US offered intelligence support instead.
US officials also told ABC News that Saudi Arabia was receiving significant intelligence and targeting support, while direct US strikes against the Houthis were not planned at that point.
The message is clear: Washington continues to support Riyadh but is avoiding opening a direct US military front in Yemen.
That makes the Muscat meeting particularly significant.
What Was Discussed in Muscat
According to Reuters, the Houthis assured the American side that they did not intend to attack US vessels and would continue to respect the 2025 ceasefire agreement with Washington.
One source also said the Houthis were prepared to refrain from attacking Israeli and other commercial vessels, while retaining the option of targeting vessels linked to Saudi Arabia.
There is no new formal agreement at this stage. But the existence of a direct communication channel is strategically important.
Bab el-Mandeb: The Houthis' Main Leverage
The strategic importance of the Houthis today is not defined solely by their missiles and drones.
Their greatest asset is geography.
Bab el-Mandeb connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and is a critical link on the maritime route between Asia and Europe via the Suez Canal.
On September 11, Reuters reported that the Houthis had reached Perim Island, located directly in the strait. On September 16, the agency reported further Houthi gains around strategic territory and islands in the area.
Control of the approaches to the strait gives the Houthis leverage over shipping, insurance and energy markets.
Saudi Arabia at the Center of the Risk
For Riyadh, the situation is considerably more difficult.
Saudi Arabia is facing Houthi attacks while seeking continued American support.
On September 14, Reuters reported a meeting between Mohammed bin Salman and US Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper, following reports that Riyadh had sought US military assistance against the Houthis.
Yet direct US military intervention remains off the table for now.
For Saudi Arabia, this means adjusting to a new reality: American support remains, but automatic US military intervention does not.
What It Means for Markets
If the Houthis refrain from attacking US vessels and most international commercial shipping, the risk of further disruption in the Red Sea could decline.
The risk of attacks against Saudi Arabia, however, remains.
For markets, this is therefore not the end of the crisis, but an attempt to contain it.
For oil, that means a continuing geopolitical premium. For the tanker market, elevated insurance and routing risks remain. For Europe-Asia trade, there is a potential path toward a gradual return of shipping through the Red Sea — provided the reported understandings are respected in practice.
Andrievskii Verdict
Washington, in my view, is changing tactics: rather than confronting the Houthis directly, it is trying to establish workable rules with them.
That reduces the risk of a direct US-Houthi confrontation, but does not remove the threat to Saudi Arabia or the Red Sea.
I see the Muscat contacts as an early signal of pragmatic de-escalation, not a peace agreement.
For investors, the key indicator will be the Houthis' actions: will international shipping return to Bab el-Mandeb, and will insurance and freight premiums begin to fall?
Aleksei Andrievskii | Advisory Board Member, Bendura Bank AG | Liechtenstein