IMF Revises Liechtenstein’s Economic Forecast Upwards

ANDRIEVSKII.CH | October 14, 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published an update to its World Economic Outlook on 13 October 2026. In this twice-yearly publication, the IMF assesses economic conditions globally and across all its member countries. Overall, the Fund considers the global economy more resilient than it had expected in the spring, given the many challenges it currently faces.

The IMF has revised its economic forecast for Liechtenstein significantly upwards. It now projects real GDP growth of around 1% in 2026, compared with a contraction of 0.4% forecast in the spring. The unemployment rate, estimated to average 2.3% over the year, remains low by international standards. However, it is higher than in previous years in Liechtenstein, reflecting the continuing challenges.

In April 2026, the IMF had forecast a slight contraction in Liechtenstein’s economy amid difficult global conditions. This expectation was driven primarily by the outbreak of war in Iran and its anticipated adverse effects on the global economy and, consequently, on Liechtenstein’s highly export-oriented economy. Inflation in the Swiss franc area is expected to remain low, averaging 0.6% over the year.

The IMF’s assessment takes into account both short-term developments and structural factors. In the spring, the Fund had already confirmed that the structural factors underpinning Liechtenstein’s economy presented a more positive picture. The latest economic data now also point to early signs of stabilisation, reflected in an improvement in the Liechtenstein Institute’s KonSens economic index and in the Office of Statistics’ latest economic survey for the second quarter. Overall, Liechtenstein’s economy appears resilient despite persistent and substantial challenges. Over the medium term, the IMF projects a higher potential growth rate of 1.5% in real terms.

Globally, the IMF expects relatively moderate economic growth of 3% this year and forecasts only a slight acceleration in the years ahead. The Fund warns in particular of considerable uncertainty and the adverse effects of the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Iran, especially on global energy availability and costs. It takes a more positive view of developments in artificial intelligence and the booming technology sector, which it sees as offering a wide range of opportunities.

In preparing its forecasts for Liechtenstein, the IMF draws on both national data and its own calculations and assessments. Ongoing work to improve and expand Liechtenstein’s macroeconomic statistics, led by the Office of Statistics, aims to make more data available in a timely manner for these forecasts, which attract considerable international attention.

Source: www.llv.li

Aleksei Andrievskii | Advisory Board Member, Bendura Bank AG | Liechtenstein