Barclays upgrades European airlines after their shares take off
ANDRIEVSKII.CH | November 6, 2026
Wall Street likes to credit an airline’s success to good management. Then jet fuel gets cheaper, and it turns out quite a bit of managerial talent is sold at the pump.
Barclays analysts led by Andrew Lobbenberg revised their ratings and price targets for European carriers. As tensions eased in the Middle East, jet fuel became cheaper for both immediate delivery and delivery in the months ahead. Solid revenue per available seat-kilometre in the September quarter and steady year-end bookings also helped the case for the airlines.
Who benefits first from cheaper jet fuel
Ryanair has locked in prices for about a quarter of the fuel it expects to need in fiscal 2028. Norwegian has hedged 22% of its fuel needs for 2027. The less fuel an airline has hedged, the sooner falling prices can help its margins. If prices rise, its costs respond just as promptly.
Barclays’ airline upgrades
Air France-KLM. Barclays raised its rating from Underweight to Overweight, skipping the neutral grade. It doubled its price target from €9 to €18 (+100%).
Norwegian Air Shuttle. The bank upgraded the stock from Equal Weight to Overweight and raised its price target from 11.50 to 16 Norwegian kroner (+39.1%).
Finnair. Barclays lifted its rating from Underweight to Equal Weight and raised its price target from €3.40 to €4.60 (+35.3%).
Ryanair. The bank upgraded the stock from Equal Weight to Overweight and raised its price target from €24 to €29 (+20.8%).
Deutsche Lufthansa. Barclays raised its rating from Underweight to Equal Weight and its price target from €7.50 to €8.40 (+12%).
Barclays sees room for Air France-KLM shares to reprice given the airline’s low valuation multiples and stronger demand for premium leisure travel. For Lufthansa and Finnair, a slow recovery in long-haul traffic to Asia and potentially softer cargo demand could eat into the fuel savings.
Andrievskii Verdict
Barclays, punctual as ever. The planes were already off the runway when the bank came to the window to announce that they stood a fair chance of taking off. Perhaps the two-notch upgrade for Air France-KLM was meant to make up for all that time spent at the gate.
Meanwhile, Donkey and Hippo had just come back from the funeral of two piglets. Elon had ordered them to fly to Mars, but they died waiting at the gate. When the loudspeaker finally called for boarding, Donkey started to get up. Hippo tugged at his sleeve.
“Sit down. That’s Barclays clearing them for takeoff.”
There was one thing the bank got right on the first try. The password was “Donkey loves Hippo. Time to party.”
The champagne can stay on ice for now. Barclays’ estimates depend on steady oil supplies. Renewed tensions in the Middle East could push jet fuel prices back up and cut into the expected savings. The market has a way of billing both sides for being sure.
Disclaimer: This publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute personalised investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Investments in financial instruments involve risks, including the potential loss of capital.
Aleksei Andrievskii | Advisory Board Member, Bendura Bank AG | Liechtenstein