ANDRIEVSKII.CH: Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVO-B.CO) Is Back at Its 2021 Share Price — but Revenue Is 2.6 Times Larger and Profit 2.7 Times Higher
“It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data.” — Arthur Conan Doyle
For too long, I was skeptical about weight-loss medicines—until my own experience forced me to look at them differently. Losing weight and seeing meaningful changes in how I felt, including my blood-pressure readings, prompted me to take a much deeper look at GLP-1 therapies, their potential cardiovascular benefits and their broader effects on the body. Personal experience is no substitute for clinical evidence. But it was precisely that experience that made me study the evidence—and then the companies behind this pharmaceutical revolution: Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.
What began as a medical curiosity gradually became an investment question: could one of the biggest structural trends in modern pharmaceuticals now be available at a substantially lower valuation than it was only a few years ago?
I decided to look for the answer not in sentiment, but in the numbers.
The Same Share Price. A Very Different Company.
Novo Nordisk shares closed September 21 at DKK 260, down 7.65% for the session. But one day's decline is less interesting than what has happened over five years.
On May 21, 2021, Novo traded at approximately DKK 248.4 per share, adjusted for the company's 2-for-1 stock split in 2023.
That means the share price has risen by only about 4.7% in more than five years.
The underlying business, however, has been transformed.
TTM revenue increased from approximately DKK 126.9 billion to DKK 329.4 billion. Operating profit rose from DKK 52.8 billion to DKK 142.1 billion, while net profit increased from DKK 42.9 billion to DKK 116.4 billion.
The divergence is even more striking at the per-share level. Split-adjusted diluted EPS increased from roughly DKK 9.21 to DKK 26.2—almost 2.85 times.
And that is where the story becomes interesting.
At DKK 248.4 in 2021, investors were paying roughly 27 times trailing earnings for Novo. At around DKK 260 today and TTM EPS of roughly DKK 26.2, they are paying only about 9.9 times earnings.
Almost the same share price. Almost three times the earnings per share.
This is no longer simply a story about a falling stock. It is a story about extraordinary multiple compression.
What The P/E Ratio Doesn't Tell You
A cheap stock and a cheap business are not necessarily the same thing.
One number complicates the otherwise remarkable growth story: free cash flow.
Using a comparable definition—operating cash flow less PP&E capital expenditure—TTM free cash flow was approximately DKK 47.6 billion in the 2021 comparison period. Today it is around DKK 45.2 billion.
Profits have nearly tripled. Free cash flow has not.
The explanation can be found in another number. Comparable PP&E capex has risen from roughly DKK 5.6 billion to about DKK 56 billion.
Novo has spent enormous sums building the manufacturing infrastructure required to serve global GLP-1 demand.
The crucial question, therefore, isn't simply whether 10 times earnings looks cheap. It is substantially cheaper than Novo's 2021 valuation.
The more interesting question is: what happens to free cash flow when the intensity of this investment cycle begins to ease?
That may ultimately prove to be one of the most important parts of the Novo investment case.
Novo Just Showed Investors What Comes After Wegovy
The company's September 21 Capital Markets Day offered its clearest picture yet of the next chapter.
Novo intends to launch more than five potential multi-blockbusters by 2030, with at least five Phase 3 programs in obesity and diabetes and at least five more across other therapeutic areas.
It sees more than DKK 150 billion of risk-adjusted pipeline sales by 2035. By 2030, Novo wants to serve more than 60 million patients globally, while oral GLP-1 manufacturing capacity is intended to support ten times as many people living with obesity.
What management did not promise was a return to the hypergrowth of the recent past.
For 2026 through 2030, Novo aims to deliver revenue CAGR broadly in line with its selected pharmaceutical peer group while maintaining a broadly stable operating margin. Importantly, Novo describes these as strategic ambitions, not financial guidance.
The market wanted more.
Novo shares fell as much as 9% during Monday's session as executives faced questions about pricing power, M&A and the company's ability to replace semaglutide revenue as key patent protections expire in the early 2030s, Reuters reported.
That reaction says something important about how investors now see Novo.
A few years ago, the market paid a premium for growth. Today, it wants proof that growth can return.
CagriSema Is a Reminder Not to Write Novo Off
Novo also released new Phase 3 results for CagriSema.
In REIMAGINE 5, CagriSema 1.0/1.0 mg produced average weight loss of 12.4% versus 9.1% for tirzepatide specifically at the 5 mg dose in adults with type 2 diabetes.
That qualification matters. The study does not establish superiority over the highest doses of tirzepatide.
In REDEFINE 9, CagriSema produced approximately 21% weight loss versus placebo at week 68. The medicine remains investigational.
Novo expects to begin launching CagriSema in early 2027, followed by cagrilintide, high-dose CagriSema and eventually zenagamtide. Management has also signaled that its balance sheet could support larger acquisitions, although the DKK 150 billion pipeline ambition relates to Novo's own risk-adjusted pipeline and does not depend on future M&A.
In other words, Novo is trying to convince investors that its future is bigger than Wegovy.
2026 Is A Year of Proof
There are reasons Novo trades at a low multiple.
Growth has slowed. Eli Lilly has emerged as a formidable competitor. Pricing pressure is real. And Novo still has to demonstrate that years of enormous manufacturing investment can eventually translate into stronger free cash flow.
The market is therefore no longer valuing what Novo accomplished in the past.
It is trying to put a price on the next Novo.
And that creates a remarkable divergence.
Over roughly five years, revenue has increased by about 160%, net profit by roughly 172%, and EPS by around 185%.
The share price has risen by about 5%.
Andrievskii Verdict
Novo Nordisk today presents a rare case in which the share price has essentially returned to its level of five years ago while the economic scale of the business has changed dramatically.
Adjusted for the stock split, Novo traded at approximately DKK 248 in May 2021 versus DKK 260 today. Over the same period, revenue increased roughly 2.6-fold, net profit 2.7-fold, and EPS almost 2.85-fold.
The result has been one of the most dramatic valuation compressions in the company's history:
P/E: ~27x → ~10x.
But the low multiple reflects legitimate questions. Novo must demonstrate that the tens of billions of kroner invested in manufacturing and R&D can translate into free cash flow—and that its next generation of medicines can offset pricing pressure, competition from Lilly and the eventual loss of semaglutide exclusivity.
Yesterday's Capital Markets Day gave investors a pipeline and manufacturing strategy, but it did not offer aggressive growth promises. That is precisely why the market now wants proof in the numbers.
And this is where the central investment question emerges: if Novo can begin to bring free-cash-flow growth closer to earnings growth, today's roughly 10x P/E could take on a very different meaning. If elevated capex, pricing pressure and slower growth persist, much of the current discount will have an economic explanation.
The next major checkpoint comes on November 4, 2026 at 07:30 CEST, when Novo Nordisk is scheduled to report financial results for the first nine months of 2026.
This publication is provided for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Aleksei Andrievskii | Advisory Board Member, Bendura Bank AG | Liechtenstein