Aleksei Andrievskii: What the Democrats’ Senate Victory Means for European Aviation and Construction Materials
ANDRIEVSKII.CH | November4, 2026
Washington counts votes. Wall Street recalculates risk. Democrats won control of the U.S. Senate in the midterms, and the result opens up different prospects for two European industries. Lower jet fuel prices could support airline earnings as early as the coming quarters. Once reconstruction projects get underway, cement producers could see a steady flow of orders for years.
European Aviation. Passengers Picked Up the Tab
The new Senate majority could put more pressure on the administration to pursue diplomacy with Iran. If markets see less risk of escalation in the Middle East, the geopolitical premium in oil prices could shrink. Cheaper jet fuel would give Norwegian Air Shuttle, Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, Wizz Air, and International Airlines Group (IAG) some breathing room. A stronger euro and pound could amplify the benefit because jet fuel is priced in dollars. When the savings show up in earnings depends on how far ahead carriers have locked in fuel prices and exchange rates.
Lufthansa Group has already shown how it can cope with expensive fuel. Third-quarter 2026 revenue rose 9% year over year to €12.2 billion, the highest quarterly figure in the group’s history. Fuel costs rose by more than €500 million, yet adjusted operating profit increased 6% to €1.4 billion. Passengers kept buying tickets, and Lufthansa kept costs in check. Between them, they covered the fuel bill.
Construction Materials. When Plans Become Orders
Construction materials producers work on a longer timetable. Rebuilding homes, roads, bridges, and energy facilities in Ukraine and conflict-affected parts of the Middle East could support demand for cement, aggregates, and ready-mix concrete. Across Eastern Europe, upgrades to transport and energy infrastructure and improvements in building efficiency could generate additional demand.
In my view, Heidelberg Materials is the leading potential beneficiary of reconstruction among European construction materials producers. Turkey is central to that assessment. Heidelberg Materials increased its stake in Akçansa, which has cement terminals on the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. If large-scale procurement gets underway in Ukraine and the Middle East, that network could give Heidelberg Materials more delivery options. Concrete, unlike capital, has weight. What matters in a tender is what the material costs when it reaches the job site.
The Democratic victory matters to the sector insofar as it affects Washington’s participation in international assistance programs. Local security, funding, and tender schedules will shape the pace of reconstruction. Where buyers set emissions requirements, the carbon footprint of the cement will also matter.
And the Last Shall Be First
Airlines may see the benefits sooner. Cheaper jet fuel and stronger European currencies could support margins and help carriers cover costs under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) requirements. Yet the market sometimes prices European airlines as though the next crisis were already waiting at the boarding gate.
A brief detour into U.S. tech stocks. Google “profits ten years from now.” By the time the search results come up, Wall Street seems to have priced them in. Back to the airlines. They’d settle for the market believing in next quarter.
Heidelberg Materials is on a different clock. In 2026, it completed the purchase of BURNCO assets in Canada and signed an agreement to acquire a 70% stake in Peru’s Cementos Inka. In Australia, its agreement to buy Maas Group’s construction materials business covers 40 quarries and 22 ready-mix concrete plants. In Norway and Sweden, Heidelberg Materials agreed to buy NCC’s aggregates and asphalt operations, comprising 106 aggregates sites and 44 asphalt plants across the two countries.
Shareholders are entitled to ask what that expansion will earn. For reconstruction projects, the answer will come down to volumes, delivery schedules, and margins after freight. As for who’s running the room, the tenders will decide.
Disclaimer: This publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute personalised investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Investments in financial instruments involve risks, including the potential loss of capital.
Aleksei Andrievskii | Advisory Board Member, Bendura Bank AG | Liechtenstein