Airbus: A $420 Billion Services Market and Combat Drones Strengthen the Investment Case
ANDRIEVSKII.CH | October 15, 2026
The European aerospace group aims to increase aircraft services revenue while advancing its combat drone programme. For shareholders, the central question is how much of that opportunity Airbus can turn into profit.
Airbus has outlined the scale of aviation’s next phase of growth. In a forecast published on October 14, the company estimates that the global aviation services market will exceed $420 billion annually by 2045, growing at a compound annual rate of 3.8%. Over the next two decades, the industry will need 2.44 million skilled professionals, including 730,000 maintenance technicians, 660,000 pilots and 1.05 million cabin crew. These figures cover global aviation, rather than recruitment at Airbus itself.
Behind those numbers lies a problem already affecting airline economics: a larger fleet requires sufficient resources to maintain it. Shortages of technical personnel increase the importance of training, maintenance planning and spare parts management. For service providers, this creates a business opportunity; for the industry as a whole, it constrains growth.
Airbus intends to capture some of that demand. According to Reuters, the company aims to increase commercial aircraft services revenue to more than $10 billion by 2030, from approximately €5.4 billion in 2025. This is its second attempt to reach that threshold: an earlier target for 2025 was reconsidered following the pandemic.
The economic rationale is to generate more revenue throughout an aircraft’s operating life. Crew training, technical support, upgrades and digital solutions allow the company to maintain commercial relationships with customers after delivery. Successful execution could make revenue more resilient. The effect on earnings will depend on contract margins and the cost of expanding the business.
Digital services and connectivity are a particular area of interest. Airbus expects this segment to grow by 5.3% annually and reach $27 billion by 2045. Data analysis and aircraft connectivity help airlines manage operations while giving manufacturers opportunities to broaden their services offering.
However, the global market forecast cannot be translated directly into future Airbus revenue. Engine manufacturers, independent maintenance companies and other suppliers compete for airline spending. A growing market creates opportunities, but Airbus still has to win its share.
Defence technology is the second area of development. On October 12, Airbus announced the first European flight of the U740 Valkyrie uncrewed combat aircraft, developed in cooperation with US company Kratos. The partners aim to deliver a combat-ready system by 2029 to address the requirements of Germany and other European armed forces.
For investors, Valkyrie represents an additional opportunity for long-term growth. The flight demonstrates progress, although it is too early to treat the programme as an established source of substantial earnings. The next significant milestones are completion of development, contracts and production deliveries.
Andrievskii Verdict
Airbus deserves a place among the most promising stocks in the European aerospace sector. That assessment rests on its combination of commercial aircraft manufacturing, an expanding services business and participation in new defence programmes.
The most convincing part of the investment thesis is services. A delivered aircraft remains in operation for many years, generating demand for support, training and upgrades. If Airbus can capture a larger share of that spending, it will gain an additional source of revenue built on existing airline relationships.
Valkyrie adds to the company’s long-term potential, but for now it should be viewed as an opportunity whose financial outcome remains uncertain.
Airbus remains an interesting option for long-term investment in the European aerospace sector. The expansion of its services business and defence programmes broadens the company’s opportunities, while the appeal of its shares depends on how much of that potential is already reflected in the price.
For shareholders, the decisive factors will be delivery performance, free cash flow growth and services profitability. These measures will show how effectively Airbus translates market expansion into financial results.
Disclaimer: This publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute personalised investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Investments in financial instruments involve risks, including the potential loss of capital.
Aleksei Andrievskii | Advisory Board Member, Bendura Bank AG | Liechtenstein