Against the Consensus: UBS's Jarrod Castle and Bendura Bank AG Advisory Board Member Aleksei Andrievskii Remain Constructive on Wizz Air

While most analysts remain focused on risks, UBS has raised its target price twice this month, and supporters of the company believe the market is underestimating Wizz Air's recovery potential.

Caution continues to dominate sentiment around Wizz Air Holdings on the London Stock Exchange. Much of the market remains preoccupied with the temporary grounding of part of the fleet, geopolitical uncertainty and tensions in the Middle East. Consensus expectations remain restrained, with the average target price standing at around £10.41 per share.

Yet not everyone shares that assessment

Jarrod Castle, Managing Director and Head of EMEA Transport Research at UBS, and Aleksei Andrievskii, Member of the Advisory Board of Bendura Bank AG, remain constructive on the company. Castle reiterated his Buy recommendation twice in June, first lifting his target price to £14.30 and then, just nine days later, raising it again to £16.05. The successive upgrades imply upside potential of more than 45% from current levels and reflect growing confidence in Wizz Air's medium-term recovery.

Understanding such optimism requires looking beyond daily headlines and focusing on the underlying economics of the business.

Wizz Air's latest results proved more resilient than many market participants had anticipated. During the past financial year, the airline carried a record 70 million passengers, an increase of 10% compared with the previous year.

Operations generated approximately €2 billion in cash, providing the company with a comfortable liquidity cushion. Management also continued to strengthen the balance sheet, reducing leverage from 4.4x to 3.7x.

At the same time, Wizz Air reached a new operational milestone by operating 1,200 flights in a single day. That equates to one departure every 72 seconds and more than 200,000 passengers carried across 45 countries.

Castle's investment thesis rests on Wizz Air's structural cost advantage. In his view, once the current engine constraints affecting part of the fleet gradually ease, the ultra-low-cost model should again be able to demonstrate the strengths that have historically distinguished the company from many of its competitors.

Andrievskii broadly shares that assessment. Over the past year, he has consistently argued that concerns over geopolitics and energy prices have resulted in excessively conservative valuations across much of the European airline sector. As those headwinds gradually subside, airlines could emerge among the principal beneficiaries of a recovery in sentiment.

According to Andrievskii, investors should spend more time studying annual reports, balance sheets and cash flows, and less time reacting to every passing headline.

Verdict

For now, market sentiment towards the Hungarian low-cost carrier remains cautious. Yet the gap between prevailing consensus expectations and more constructive views remains unusually wide.

Wizz Air possesses one of the youngest fleets in Europe, strong positions in expanding markets and a valuation that continues to reflect many of yesterday's concerns. Whether the market's caution ultimately proves justified, or whether today's scepticism gives way to a broader reassessment, may become one of the more interesting stories in European aviation during the second half of 2026.

Aleksei Andrievskii | Advisory Board Member, Bendura Bank AG | Liechtenstein